Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note, the Provisional Estimates (PE) of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Financial Year (FY) 2023-24 and Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the Fourth quarter (January-March) of 2023-24 along with its expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. Annual and quarterly estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity along with year on year percent changes, expenditure components of GDP and annual estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income for the years 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 at Constant and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 8 of Annexure A.

Key Highlights:

Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY 2023-24 as compared to the growth rate of 7.0% in FY 2022-23. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24 over the growth rate of 14.2% in FY 2022-23.
Real GVA has grown by 7.2% in 2023-24 over 6.7% in 2022-23. This GVA growth has been mainly due to significant growth of 9.9% in Manufacturing sector in 2023-24 over -2.2% in 2022-23 and growth of 7.1% in 2023-24 over 1.9% in 2022-23 for Mining & Quarrying sector.
Real GVA and Real GDP have been estimated to grow by 6.3% and 7.8% respectively in Q4 of FY 2023-24. Growth rates in Nominal GVA and Nominal GDP for Q4 of FY 2023-24 have been estimated at 8.0% and 9.9% respectively.

Annual Estimates and Growth Rates

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹173.82 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.71 lakh crore. The growth rate in Real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 8.2% as compared to 7.0% in 2022-23. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹295.36 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against ₹269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.6%.

Real GVA is estimated at ₹158.74 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against the FRE for the year 2022-23 of ₹148.05 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 7.2% as compared to 6.7% in 2022-23. Nominal GVA is estimated to attain a level of ₹267.62 lakh crore during FY 2023-24, against ₹246.59 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.5%.

Fig. 1: Annual GDP and GVA Estimates along with Growth Rates at Constant Prices

Fig. 2: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Annual GVA

Sectoral Composition of Nominal GVA in FY 2023-24

Fig. 3: Composition and Growth Rates of Annual GVA in Broad Sectors

[Primary Sector: Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing and Mining & Quarrying

Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services and Construction

Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services]

Quarterly Estimates and Growth Rates

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹47.24 lakh crore, against ₹43.84 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 7.8%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹78.28 lakh crore, against ₹71.23 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.9%.

Real GVA in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹42.23 lakh crore, against ₹39.74 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 6.3%. Nominal GVA in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹70.97 lakh crore, against ₹65.74 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.0%.

Fig. 4: Quarterly GDP and GVA Estimates along with Y-o-Y Growth Rates from Q1 FY 2021-22 to Q4 FY 2023-24 at Constant Prices

Fig. 5: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA

Sectoral Composition of Nominal GVA in Q4 of FY 2023-24

Fig. 6: Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA in Broad Sectors

Methodology and Major Data Sources

Provisional and Quarterly Estimates of National Income are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year (2022-23) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income for the year 2023-24 were released on 29th February, 2024. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest information on relevant indicators in the financial year.

The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators/data sources like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) Financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector based on available quarterly financial results of these companies for 2023-24, (iii) Advance Estimates of Crop Production for 2023-24, (iv) Production of Major Livestock Products for 2023-24, (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/ Consumption of Cement and Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central & State Governments, etc., available for the financial year 2023-24. Year-on-Year growth rates (%) in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure B.

Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. Latest available information from Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy for Centre and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States up to March, 2024 along with the Centre/State-wise RE and BE Provision for 2023-24. Information on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. from Centre and States for 2023-24 are used for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

Improved data coverage and revision in input data made by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June of 2024-25 (Q1 2024-25) will be on 30.08.2024.

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Annexure A